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Livestock, Climate Change and the Environment |
Climate change is defined as “any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a results of human activity” (IPCC 1995). Climaet change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typpically decades or longer (Hegerl et al 2007)
Adaptation can be understood as a reaction on different climatic stimuli which include, global climate change, variability and extreme events (Smit et al 2006; Smith et al 2000). Adaptation refers to adjustments in natural or human systems, intended to reduce vulnerability to actual or anticipated climate change and variability or exploit beneficial opportunities, while mitigation is actions resulting in reductions to the degree or intensity of GHG emissions (MONRE 2008).
On the other hand, climate change not only refers to changing means of variables over a long period of time. The frequency and intensity of extreme cliamte events such as droughts, floods, storms and hurricanes, are also part of global climate change (Karl and Knight 1998 cited in Smith et al 2000). Several scholars argue that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is increasing (Harmeling 2008; IPCC 2007; McMichael et al 2004).
In the World, the increase of average surface temperature of the earth was already indicated in 1861 (IPCC 2001). Global warming is an unprecedented phenomenon in the historical development of the earth climate system (IPCC 2007). The temperature has increased by 0.740C within 100 years from 1906 to 2005 (IPCC 2007). On average, the earth surface temperature increased by approximately 0.0740C every decade. However, this average rise differs considerablely per time scales and geographical regions. For instance, the average rise in temperature in recent 50 years is twice as much as the average rise of 100 years – 0.130C/decade (IPCC 2007). The rise in temperature measured at the North Pole is nearly twice as much compared to the global rise – 1.50C/100 years (IPCC 2007).
As temperature increased, glaciers at the North Pole, South Pole and Greenland have started to melt at an increased rate. When snow and ice cover melts, huge amount of water joins the oceans which lead to an immediate rise in sea-level. The global average sea-level raised on average 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003, and has been increasing in recent years (IPCC 2007).
With higher temperatures, precipitation changes due to an increase in water evaporation. The global precipitation increased by around 1% in the last few decades (Fox and Seielstad 2003). Again, the speed of this change has been significantly different per geographical region. In tropical areas, the rainfall per decade increased from 0.2 to 0.3% (IPCC 2007), but in sub-tropical areas rainfall decreased by 0.3% per decade (IPCC 2007). Furthermore, arid and semi-arid regions have become drier, and regions in mid to high latitudes have become wetter as a result from changes in precipitation patterns (McMichael et al 2004).
Besides, there are changes in the frequency, intensity and distribution of extreme events. The frequency of heavy precipitation events grew from 2 to 4% over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, while the frequency of extreme low temperatures reduced considerably (IPCC 2007). Notably, the frequency and intensity of storms, flood and drought has raised significantly due to fluctuations in average climatic conditions, such as temperature and precipitation ((Easterling et al 2000; Heltberg et al 2008; IPCC 2001; IPCC 2007; Klein and Tol 1997). Over the decade of the 1990s, especially, the frequency as well as intensity of such events increased (Mirza 2003). For that very reason, according to Schipper (2004) and Oxfam (2007), the risk of disasters has increased.
The accuracy of the predictions of the IPCC reports and other scientific papers has been debated substantially over the world. Despite that the expected rate of change is uncertain; the changes - such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decrease of ice and sea level rise - are increasingly proved in important and tangible way (Karl and Trenberth 2003).
The global climate is comprised by different climate belts, for example tropic and temperate. Each belt has its own characteristics in terms of variables and extreme events. Therefore, the manifestations of change of different climate belts can be different.
Several studies have been done
to estimate how the tropical Vietnamese climate has changed in recent decades.
Nguyen Van Thang et al. (2008) used data from the past 70 years
Moreover, according to Le Duc Nam and Le Quang Tuan (2008) and MARD (2008), extreme low temperatures in Vietnam have become more common. This means that Vietnam will also experience more severe flooding. In the next decades, these several climate extreme events are expected to become more frequent, intensive and abnormal in parallel with an expected temperature increase of 3oC by 2100 (Le Duc Nam and Le Quang Tuan 2008; MARD 2008).
Climate change tendency in Viet Nam is shown in terms of temperature, precipitation and sea level (MONRE 2009). According to the Climate Change Scenarios, the annual average temperature will increase by 20C in 2050 and by 30C in 2100 and the precipitation will change in different regions. The sea level is estimated to rise about 100cm in 2100 (MONRE 2009). With sea level rise of 1 meter, about 10% of the population would be directly affected and loss of GDP would be about 10%. If sea level rises by 3 meters, about 25% of the population would be directly affected with GDP lost of about 25% (World Bank 2007). According to assessment of MONRE (2008), agricultural production and food security in Vietnam will be seriously influenced by climate change. Climate change, in turn, has large impacts on the growth and productivity of plants, cropping seasons and increase pestilent insect. Climate change also affects growth and productivity of livestock, increases risk of pathogenesis.
Climate change impacts to Vietnam are considered to be serious. It is obviously a challenge to the cause of hunger eradication and poverty reduction, the implementation of millennium development goals, and the country’s sustainable development. Sectors, areas, and localities vulnerable to climate change are defined as water resources, agriculture and food security, public health, Deltas and coastal areas (MONRE 2008).
The Government of Vietnam, with a clear vision on climate change impacts, early ratified the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Development of a National Target Program (NTP) to Respond to Climate Change as requested by the Government’s Resolution No. 60/2007/NQ-CP dated 3rd December 2007 is high priority. The program has been implementing by a combination of researches and practical climate change responding measures and has main activites as follows.
The key tasks need to be implemented over the period of 2009-2010 are to assess climate variability, develop climate change scenarios and assess climate change impacts on different fields, sectors and regions, and identify climate change adaptation measures. Targets to be achieved are: Complete and update climate change scenarios, especially sea level rise, in Viet Nam basing on existing studies so that sectors and localities can use to develop their action plan to respond to climate change; Complete the assessment of level, nature and trend of climate factors; Complete scientific foundation, methodologies, and guidance on climate change impacts, especially sea level rise, assessment for sectors and localities; Implement pilot projects to address climate change impacts, especially sea level rise, on sectors/localities sensitive and vulnerable to climate change, i.e. water resources, irrigation, agriculture, health and livelihoods, delta and coastal areas.
Measures to respond to climate change will be identified based on results of climate change impact and vulnaribility assessement for sector/areas and localities. Targets to be achieved are: Complete developing methodologies and guidance for identifying measures to cope with climate change; Implement a number of pilot projects on coping with climate change for sectors/areas and localities vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise; Complete identifying measures to respond to climate change for sectors/areas and localities; Start to implement selected measures for sectors/areas and localities according to action plan.
The national scientific-technological program on climate change will be developed and implemented to provide scientific basics for the development of policy, institution and action plans to respond to climate change; to carry out research and start actions to use energy effectively; to develop technologies using clean technologies, to strengthen capacity to respond to climate change for ministries/sectors. Targets to be achieved are: Design and develop framework of a database on climate change; Develop and start to implement National Scientific – Technological Program on climate change; Identify domestic and foreign financial resources for activities; Complete and update a database on climate change; Effectively implement the Program at ministries/sectors and localities; Research on nature, trend and scenarios of climate change impacts on sectors/regions and responding measures are updated and effectively implemented, thus contribute to strengthening capacity to respond to climate change; Scientific-technological capacity of ministries/sectors/localities on climate change issues are developed; scientific-technological activities are effectively implemented; Domestic and foreign financial resources for scientific-technological activities on climate change are sufficiently mobilized.
To develop, amend and enhance the system of legal normative documents concerning climate change response and other related policies, and to ensure the legal basis to implement the activities, focusing on determined regime for incorporation of climate change issues into strategies, plans and planning for socio-economic and sectors development; To develop mechanism to encourage coordination of NTP implementation in whole country, territorial regions, localities and sectors; To encourage science-technological research, awareness raising to serve the implementation and management of NTP; To enhance the efficiency of management organization structure relating to climate change from central to local levels. Targets to be achieved are: Framework of legal documents and policy, mechanism is basically developed and enhanced; Mechanism to co-ordinate among the ministries/sectors/localities and program management apparatuses will be established; Framework of legal documents and policy, mechanism is basically issued and updated; Mechanism to coordinate among the ministries/sectors/localities and program management apparatuses is implemented and fully updated. Mobilization of many sectors and other stake-holders to participate in implementation of the NTP.
The objectives of this activity are to strength the communication, education to raise the awareness and responsibilities of the climate change for the whole society; to re-enforce the coordination among line ministries, sectors in decision-making and coordination mechanism and the participation of the community and enterprises in the implementation of activities to respond to climate change. Targets to be achieved are: Awareness raising plan and strategy would be basically developed and initially implemented at the localities and the ministries managing the fields, sectors sensitive and vulnerable to climate change; Plan of awareness raising in education and training system be initially implemented; materials and tools for raising awareness developed and popularised; Science-technological resources development plan would be completed and implemented in localities and in ministries/sectors which have authority in state management of sensitive and vulnerable fields to climate change.
Population communities and Government officials possess basic knowledge on the climate change and its impacts; Plan for awareness raising on climate change would be gradually and effectively implemented at central and local levels; Materials and tools for raising awareness be completed, updated and widely popularised; Awareness raising plan be implemented in training and education system at all levels.
Enhancement of international cooperation aims at: (1) taking opportunity obtain and effectively use supports from international community, including financial support and technological transfer, through bilateral and multilateral cooperation channels; and (2) Participate in regional and global cooperation activities on climate change. Targets to be achieved are: A cooperation mechanism between Viet Nam and international donors in implementing the NTP established; Bilateral and multilateral cooperation between Viet Nam and some other countries/international organizations to respond to climate change established; Initial aid (financial support, technology and expertise transfer) of international community to Viet Nam to implement the NTP primarily identified; Vietnam to contribute to the development of international agreements/documents on climate change after 2012; A framework of legal documents on mechanisms/policies to encourage investment into CDM projects, climate change response projects, and environmental friendly technology transfer projects supplemented and finalized so as to facilitate foreigner partners to invest into such projects in Vietnam.
Mainstreaming CC issues in socio-economic development strategies and plans (referred as Development plan) aims to adjust and supplement the development plan, including guiding principle, institution, organization and operation relating to the implementation of development plan, tasks and outputs of the development plan as well as apparatus to implement the development plan to be appropriate with trends of climate change, climatic extremes as well as their short-term and long-term effects on the development plan.
Basing on the assessment of climate change variability, agreed climate change scenarios, the assessment of climate change impacts, relevant ministries, sectors, and localities should take initiative in developing their own action plans to respond to climate change. Some sectors, region sensitive and vulnerable to climate change are: water resources, land use, ecosystem; agriculture, forestry, aquaculture; energy; construction; transportation; public health, tourism, likelihood; the Mekong delta, the Red River delta, and coastal zones.
Targets to be achieved are:
Framework documents, action plans for coping with climate
change are basically developed for the fields, sectors and localities venerable
and sensitive to climate change; Action plans are implemented in the localities
and ministries that manage fields, sectors and localities vulnerable and
sensitive to climate change; Action plans for climate change adaptation and
mitigation in the main fields will be implemented throughout in all relevant
sectors and levels.
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